UK house prices are up slightly over the last year, but there are HUGE regional differences.
Feeling a bit lost with so many house price indices out there?
The HomeOwners Alliance House Price Watch looks at all the information from the many indices out there to give you one easy-to-digest round-up of everything you need to know.
So, let's look at how prices have changed over the past month and year.
What’s going on with house prices?
When you average out the latest figures reported by all the major indices, monthly house prices fell 0.3% in March (see chart below).
But despite the recent dip, prices are still up 0.6% over the last 12 months, with the average UK home now valued at around £281,000.
That shows values have proved incredibly resilient given all the challenges homeowners have faced in the last two years.
As Nationwide notes: "With cost-of-living pressures easing as inflation moves back towards target, consumer sentiment is improving.
"Indeed, surveyors report a pickup in new buyer enquiries and new instructions to sell in recent months.
"Moreover, with income growth continuing to outpace house price growth by a healthy margin, housing affordability is improving, albeit gradually.
What will happen to prices over the next year?
The 0.3% dip in March highlights why most forecasters are cautious about the housing market's prospects for the remainder of 2024.
As Homeowners Alliance notes: “Overall market indicators remain positive into March with buyer demand up again and the flow of new homes for sale also up.
"However, the market remains price sensitive with affordability pressures still present - house prices have dipped this month but remain up year on year.
"The near-term outlook remains cautious as the decline in mortgage rates that had helped to drive market activity around the turn of the year has stalled with uncertainty around the timing of Bank of England's Base Rate cuts.”
7 reasons why no one is buying your house
What's happening to house prices near me?
Land Registry has the most comprehensive data regarding housing stock, and it provides a handy regional breakdown of house prices across the UK.
However, its data takes slightly longer to compile so isn't quite as up-to-date as that of the other property indices and certainly doesn't reflect the recent uptick in prices seen on the other property indices.
Nonetheless, it provides an interesting insight into how areas are faring relative to each other.
Looking at the last 12 months, its figures showed a very mixed bag, with prices rising in five regions and falling in eight.
The Scottish housing market proved the most buoyant by some distance, with prices rising a remarkable 5.6% despite all the market turbulence seen throughout 2023.
At the other end of the scale, London was comfortably the worst-performing market with prices falling 4.8%.
See the table below for a full breakdown of prices by region.
What the indices say
Homeowners Alliance
“Overall market indicators remain positive into March with buyer demand up again and the flow of new homes for sale also up. However, the market remains price sensitive with affordability pressures still present - house prices have dipped this month but remain up year on year.
"The near-term outlook remains cautious as the decline in mortgage rates that had helped to drive market activity around the turn of the year has stalled with uncertainty around the timing of Bank of England rate cuts.”
Rightmove
“Despite a better-than-expected start to the year, the market remains sensitive to pricing and external events. Rightmove’s real-time data shows the growth in buyer demand was tempered somewhat by a lacklustre Spring Budget, with no direct help for first-time buyers or mortgage market innovations.
"The average time to find a buyer is 71 days, the longest at this time of year since 2019.
"Attractively priced properties are quickly being cherry-picked, but over-optimistically priced sellers are taking longer to find a buyer.
"The average 5-year mortgage rate is now 4.84% compared to 4.64% five weeks ago, as rates edge up to higher levels.”
Nationwide
“Activity has picked up from the weak levels prevailing towards the end of 2023 but remains relatively subdued by historic standards. The number of mortgages approved for house purchase in January was around 15% below pre-pandemic levels.
"This largely reflects the impact of higher interest rates on affordability. While mortgage rates are below the peaks seen in mid-2023, they remain well above the lows prevailing in the wake of the pandemic.
"With cost-of-living pressures easing as inflation moves back towards target, consumer sentiment is improving. Indeed, surveyors report a pickup in new buyer enquiries and new instructions to sell in recent months.
"Moreover, with income growth continuing to outpace house price growth by a healthy margin, housing affordability is improving, albeit gradually.
"If these trends are maintained, activity is likely to gain momentum, though the pace of the recovery is still likely to be heavily influenced by the trajectory of interest rates.”
Halifax
“Affordability constraints continue to be a challenge for prospective buyers.
"Financial markets have become less optimistic about the degree and timing of Base Rate cuts, as core inflation proves stickier than generally expected. This has stalled the decline in mortgage rates that had helped to drive market activity around the turn of the year.
"The housing market remains sensitive to the scale and pace of interest rate changes, and with only a modest improvement in affordability on the horizon, this will likely limit the scope for significant house price increases this year.”
Zoopla
“All the primary measures of sales market activity continue to show positive, upward momentum but sellers need to remain realistic on where they set the asking price if they are to take advantage of improving market conditions to secure a sale and move home in 2024.
"The percentage of the asking price achieved has narrowed from 95.5% in November 2023 to 96.1% in March 2024.
"Sellers are accepting a median average discount to the asking price of £10,000, down from £14,250 in Nov 2023.”
RICS
“The March 2024 RICS UK Residential Survey results remain indicative of a steady improvement in overall sales market conditions. Indeed, buyer demand continues to edge higher, while near-term expectations point to activity gaining further traction over the coming months.
"Alongside this, house prices have stabilised at the headline level, with forward-looking metrics suggesting that an upward trend may emerge later in the year.”