Watch out: Buy-to-let is back....

The buy-to-let market is heating up again - be afraid. Be very afraid....
Bad news for all you first-time buyers out there. Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the housing market, buy-to-let is back.
Gross buy-to-let lending increased between July and September for the first time in two years, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML). This was no itsy-bitsy increase, but a 10% jump on the previous quarter.
The number of loans advanced rose from 21,600 to 23,700, with total new lending worth £2.1 billion, mostly for new purchases rather than remortgages.
This is from a low base, but the CML proudly boasts that "buy-to-let is here to stay". If you've read my thoughts on the subject here and here, you will understand that I'm not best pleased.
Buy-to-what?
Buy-to-let investors must be keen, because getting finance still isn't easy. You need at least a 20% deposit plus a four-figure arrangement fee. The Mortgage Works demands a 40% deposit and a stonking 3.5% arrangement fee, which would cost a might £5,250 on a £150,000 property.
Other market-leading buy-to-let mortgage deals carry arrangements fees of between 1.75% and 2.75%, or flat charges of £2,000.
Lenders are also wary about offering mortgages on city centre apartments, particularly in northern cities such as Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and Newcastle, where the buy-to-let bubble burst messily last year.
You would think that given the uncertain economy, and the expense and difficulty of getting finance, buy-to-let investors would be keeping their heads down.
But with prices still down on last year, and mortgage finance cheap, many think they have spotted a sweet spot.
Property is more affordable than at any time since the mid-1990s, according to a new report from Lombard Street Research. But the window of opportunity is closing as house prices rise faster than expected. The point of maximum affordability has already passed.
Happy days
Two groups of people celebrated the demise of buy-to-let. The first, ironically, was successful buy-to-let landlords. They watched overstretched amateurs fall by the wayside, and added to their property portfolios while prices were low. With a proven track record and spare equity aplenty, getting cheap finance was a doddle.
The second group, inevitably, was first-time buyers, who faced less competition from amateur landlords and stood a marginally better chance of getting their dream home.
The return of buy-to-let will make life even harder for them. First-time buyers now face an incredible four property market catch-22s, and with apologies to Joseph Heller, here they are.
1. The affordability catch-22. When house prices are rising and finance is easy, first-time buyers can't afford to buy because property is too expensive. But when prices fall they still can't buy because nervous lenders won't give them the finance.
2. The spare equity catch-22. The only people who can afford to buy a home are those who already own one, because property is too expensive unless you have previously made a killing on the market.
3. The buy-to-let catch-22. Most first-time buyers will only enter the market when prices are affordable and finance available, at which point buy-to-let bargain hunters start buying up all the cheap property.
4. The market timing catch-22. This one scares first-time buyers most. The moment you finally decide to leap into the property market is the point at which it collapses, drowning you in negative equity.
My friends Rachael and Chris know all about these catch-22s. Their quest to buy a tiny ex-local authority pad in a dodgy south London estate has so far fallen foul of the first three, and they have an underlying terror of the fourth. And there are plenty of people like them.
Not so hot-to-let
I don't actually think buy-to-let is that good an investment, unless you're an experienced and committed landlord.
Remember, you can get a risk-free, long-term investment yielding more than 5% a year by opting for a five-year bond like the Skipton Building Society Fixed Bond. It pays 5.35% AER until the end of November, 2014.
You can apply online in a matter of moments and there are no repairs, maintenance, wear and tear, void periods, dishonest tenants or four-figure mortgage arrangement fees to worry about.
Obviously, you won't borrow £100,000 to invest in a bond, but maybe that isn't a bad thing either.
Goodbye-to-let
Earlier this week, I suggested that thanks to low interest rates, House prices won't fall again for years.
I said that if first-time buyers can find the right place without overstretching themselves, and planned to live there for several years, they might as well take the plunge.
I would advise a newbie buy-to-let investor differently. The market has recovered slightly, but the glory days aren't going to return for many years. There are easier ways of getting a similar yield and capital growth, with similar risks.
If you are an experienced landlord, with plenty of spare equity and reliable tenants in your other properties, then frankly you don't need my advice.
Buy-to-let is back. Approach with caution.
If you're still not convinced, and want to get into buy-to-let, at least make sure you do it right by adopting this goal: Become a buy-to-let landlord.
Compare buy-to-let mortgages at lovemoney.com
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Jeeze! How we are all entitled to such a quality standard of living!! I think a few of you need to get out more, travel the world, and see how 99% of the world's population live, then try justifying how you should have a house, high paid job for life and a fat pension at the end of it, and oh how terrible our lives are in the UK. Wise up!
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TwoFlowers post perfectly describes the problems facing many in his/her peer group. I have thought for quite a while this will lead to a "brain drain" in this country where the best and most mobile will clear off out of this country. Let's face fact's for those who want to remain, regardless of what the likes of Cliff (I have my own agenda) D'Arcy say, property has become a form of "bullion" in this country ! And to face facts even more there is no way back regardless of what the property bears say, because it would bankrupt millions and bankrupt the banks.... And looking at the shambles that is the pensions industry(thanks Gordon and thanks useless fund managers) in this country, personally I'd rather trust something tangible and I suspect I'm not alone ! Perhaps we ain't seen nothing yet especially when you add buy to let to the mix !
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Hello matchmade. I gave you a few responses on a [url=/news/the-property-ladder/house-prices-wont-fall-again-for-years-4180.aspx?source=1000417]previous article[/url] but you didn't respond to my reply. Let's see if you do with this article. [b]matchmade said:[/b] [b]"Yet again buy-to-let landlords are being blamed for "high" house prices and for squeezing out FTBs, all without a shred of evidence"[/b] I heard on BBC News the other day that the number of first time buyers had been collapsing for a least a decade. The Guardian also has [url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/nov/13/house-price-fall-double-dip]the story[/url] and I quote: [b]Guardian:[/b] [b]"In a written answer to a question from the Conservatives published yesterday, the Communities and Local Government department confirmed that the number of first-time buyers last year had fallen to an all-time low. The figures show that in 1999 there were nearly 600,000 first time buyers. This fell to below 400,000 when prices peaked in 2007 and were down even further last year – to just 193,600."[/b] So how can a market - which relies on purchasing chains - be supported if no one buys at the bottom end of the market? Who is it who is both taking up the slack and able to afford the high prices charged? I wonder if the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) can [url=http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-buy-to-let.php]give us a clue[/url]. [b]"the British public's frankly weird hostility to private renting."[/b] Private renting is paying a private individual money for the privilege of living (but not owning) a particular peice of land. Land is a social asset and should be treated like one. What BTL'ers do is take land which they cannot afford and then deprive someone else of it's exclusive utility while at the same time using renters' productivity to pay or it, all the while doing little or no work themselves. To put it another way, BTL'ers are social-economic parasites. [b]"House prices are higher for a host of reasons, not least dual-earner couples"[/b] I agree with this point but: [b]"greater overall capital wealth and real incomes"[/b] I do hope you're not going to point to the GDP figure and use that as evidence of increasing wealth. After all, GDP includes a modifier so that inflation isn't mistaken for real growth. But it fails because the inflation figure has been manipulated for years and is in fact [url=http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/11/06/81731/gilty-opportunism/?source=rss]still happening.[/url] There are also lots of other reasons why that statement is false such as rising taxes which, according to the Adam Smith Institue [b]"If the government deficit is factored in, Tax Freedom Day does not come until 25 June (the worst figure since 1984).[/b][b]"[/b] In fact, excepting for some mild deflation in food (which was running at >12% YoY) the ony thing that's got cheaper has been morgage rates. Notice I used the past tense there. [b]"a lack of new housing supply"[/b] The supply and demand argument has been killed off so many times now. Don't you think it's getting a bit long in the tooth? Housing in this country is (obviously) limited by space but certinaly isn't helped by this country's astonishingly poor land management, with [url=http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/distribution/-number-of-empty-private-homes-rises-above-300000/1002606.article]hundereds of thousands of properties sitting empty[/url] while speculators reap huge capital gains. I would also say that given this "shortage", shouldn't BTL and land speculation at least be regulated to ensure that profits aren't being made from unproductive work? Or am I being too progressive? [b]"and a tax system that gives completely unfair advantages to homeowners (i.e. all capital gains on rises in house prices are tax free)."[/b] We agree again! I would add to that by also taxing BTL'ers' capital gains (currently 18% - less that the basic rate of tax) as well as all the rent they receive. [b]"Compared to all this, landlords have had a tiny effect on the market"[/b] I would argue that while BTL's impact tends to vary by region(*), their overall effect is to substantially increase house prices by denying FTB'ers access the the market. (*) For example, [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fergus_and_Judith_Wilson]let's take the Wilsons[/url]. They are a pair of retired maths teachers who like many if not most BTL pro's spotted an opening in the market when BTL deregulation was finally completed by Labour. They are now multi-milionaires and own significant numbers of new build houses in Asford, Kent. To me they represent the pinicle of the 'money for nothing' culture that New Labour (and to some extent the Tories) have fostered. [b]"How do you balance the social harm and benefit where a landlord buys a house in competition with a young couple"[/b] The young couple would buy the house to live in. To them it's a home. By being able to buy it they can then put their money into more productive uses and you would have to find somthing else to invest in, such as yourself. By using your existing equity, which you no doubt obtained from the time when BTL was much more restrictive (and therefore housing was cheaper), you not only deprive them of a home and a place of their own in this country but you also make significant amounts of money for very little work. To me, this is harm. [b]"and then rents the house out to a group of 4-5 single people who need somewhere to live"[/b] 4-5 single people who are so unproductive that they can only afford to rent a 2 or 3 bed house by clubbing together? I think that answers itself. [b]"or to a single mother on benefit who would otherwise be in bed-and-breakfast accommodation?"[/b] People who are 'social cases' should be supported by the state. It is far cheaper to house such people in local-authority run accomadation than it is to rent from BTL. Once again, seriously bad land management is to blame and now everyone (except BTL and other social parasites) pays for it. [b]"Landlords have dramatically improved the amount, variety and quality of rented property since the appalling position in the 1970s and 1980s, when the rental market had been killed off by rent controls."[/b] I would say that rent controls were far from being the best strategy of land management but at least prevented some of the parasitical behaviour which now occours in this unregulated market. My strategy would be to manage land though county council run housing banks, which in good times would by law supply cheap rental properties to the public. In bad economic times when such properties become vacant they can be used to house the resulting homeless. I would also introduce a [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax]land value tax[/url] (LVT) to prevent house prices from getting out of control and would tax non-resident owners more than resident owers in order to discourgage foreign speculation. [b]"Why do people think that big business rarely invests in rental property"[/b] One big source of contention for me is the intrerest shown by big commercial companies in agricultrial land. They buy the land, do nothing to it and then rent it to farmers who acutally make productive use of it. The farmer creates the wealth, we pay the farmer the subsidies and the investors make profit for no work. A bit like BTL. [b]"It's because the potential profits are so poor relative to the risks"[/b] That migh be true now that the market has begun to correct but it certinly wasn't true previously. Otherwise property investment companies like Land Securities wouldn't exist. [b]"and because the tax system is biased towards homeowners."[/b] No tax on the interest of your mortgage, 18% capital gains tax, council tax paid for by the tennant, no tax on second home ownership, no Land Value Tax. Biased towards homeowners?
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23 December 2009