Spring Statement rumours 2025: Chancellor Rachel Reeves' plans for triple lock, ISAs, Stamp Duty, National Insurance and more
With the Spring Statement on 26 March, Katy Ward examines speculation about what the chancellor could have planned in her mini Budget.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will reveal her Spring Statement later this month, and billions of pounds of spending cuts and tax hikes could be on the cards.
With the economy growing by a meagre 0.1% in the fourth quarter and borrowing costs rising, the outlook is even gloomier now than it was when Reeves delivered her October Budget speech.
This could force the chancellor to make more unpopular announcements to shore up the public finances.
But which areas might she target?
We look at all the viable speculation and rumours swirling around Reeves’ upcoming speech and the implications for your finances.
1. Is the triple lock under threat?
One of the biggest worries for many pensioners is the future of the triple lock.
This system guarantees that the State Pension will increase by 2.5%, in line with inflation or average earnings growth each year – whichever is highest.
The increase is set at 4.1% for the next tax year.
This aligns with September’s inflation figure.
Could the well run dry?
With an ageing population, pension costs for the Treasury are spiralling to potentially unsustainable levels.
Think tank The Adam Smith Institute has warned that the State Pension system risks becoming "fiscally unsustainable" by 2035.
2. Income Tax freeze: a further stealth tax hike?
The Government has officially ruled out major tax announcements in the Spring Statement.
However, there is speculation that Reeves may extend the freeze on Income Tax thresholds.
The Personal Allowance (the amount at which you start paying tax) for Basic Rate taxpayers has been held at £12,570 since 2021.
The Higher Rate kicks in on income above £50,271 and the Additional rate at £125,140.
Unsurprisingly, this has led to a massive surge in the numbers paying tax as wages increase.
There were an estimated 37.4 million taxpayers in 2024/25, up 4.4 million from when the thresholds were frozen in the 2021/22 tax year.
Pensioners hardest hit
With increases to the State Pension, older people are among the worst affected by the freeze.
Approximately 8.5 million taxpayers are now over the State Pension age, a quarter more than before the freeze.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "We’ve felt a stealthy squeeze on our wallets ever since the tax thresholds were frozen in 2021/22, so speculation that we might have to endure it for even longer is highly unwelcome.
“A longer freeze on thresholds might appeal to the Government because focusing on thresholds rather than the headline tax rate means it’s not technically a tax rise.”
4 ways pensioners can beat the stealth Income Tax rise
3. ISAs: allowances slashed to £4k?
The future of tax-free savings is a bone of contention in any Budget.
This year, speculation is rife over a potential reduction in the ISA allowance of £20,000.
While Cash ISA are a lifeline for many, rumours are circulating that the limit may plummet to just £4,000.
City Minister Emma Reynolds has raised concerns about the large sums in Cash ISAs.
She questioned why such funds are not being invested, pointing out that the UK lacks a strong investment culture compared to other countries.
Historically, these products have been particularly popular with older savers.
New research from Nottingham Building Society shows that three in four savers aged 55 and over oppose the Cash ISA allowance being cut.
The research also reveals that younger savers are massive fans of Cash ISAs.
Four in 10 people aged between 25 and 34 say Reeves’ potential plans will make saving a deposit for their first home more difficult.
Thankfully, since publishing this article, reports have emerged that the chancellor has cooled on this idea for the time being.
Opinion: slashing the Cash ISA allowance could be a good thing
4. Stamp Duty: potential reversal?
Stamp Duty is another issue likely to be on the radar and a key concern for homeowners.
Under existing rules, those buying properties worth less than £250,000 are exempt from this levy.
The move was part of the 2022 mini Budget, which doubled the limit from £125,000.
If you're a first-time buyer, you won’t pay Stamp Duty on properties worth up to £425,000, although you can’t claim the relief if the home is valued over £625,000.
The previous 0% threshold was £300,000.
While the Treasury has confirmed that the thresholds will return to their earlier levels this year, Reeves' Spring Statement is just days before the changes take effect.
The timing has sparked rumours of a last-minute reversal, The Sun reports.
5. National Insurance: possible relief for employers
One of the biggest shocks in the October Budget came via the chancellor’s hikes to National Insurance (NI) for employers, jumping from 13.8% to 15% from April 2025.
The chancellor also announced that the threshold at which employers start paying NI on workers' earnings will fall from £9,100 to £5,000.
Many business leaders, such as the bosses of Sainsbury’s, M&S and BT have voiced concerns about the cost to companies.
Alarmingly, some have said they may need to pass the expense on to already cash-strapped customers through price hikes.
Luckily for company bosses, there is speculation that businesses could see some relief in the Spring Statement.
6. Could gifting be at risk?
Following shock changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) in the October Budget, there are rumours that Reeves could be planning another raid.
IHT is charged on estates worth more than £325,000.
Under current rules, you can make specific gifts without affecting your tax liabilities.
For example, you can give £3,000 to an individual each year, and this won’t be part of your estate for tax purposes.
However, rumours are flying that the Government may tighten limits on these gifts.
As part of her October Budget, Reeves stunned many by unveiling plans to make unused pension pots liable for IHT – previously, these had been exempt.
7. Public spending and welfare cuts
Thanks to her self-imposed rules, Reeves can’t borrow for day-to-day expenses, leaving spending cuts as one of her only options.
According to reports, the axe will likely fall on the welfare budget.
The Treasury has submitted its proposed cuts to the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), which will release a financial forecast on 26 March alongside Reeves’ statement.
Additionally, Reeves warned that US tariffs imposed on major trading partners such as China, Canada and Mexico could affect the UK economy.
Have your say
What are you expecting to see in the Spring Statement?
Do you have any particular concerns about Reeves’ upcoming announcements?
Perhaps you fear a repeat of Liz Truss’ disastrous mini Budget in 2022.
We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.
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