Billed as "the go-to measure for the comparative economic success of different countries", the World Economic League Table (WELT) has been compiled by the UK's Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) for almost two decades. It ranks nations according to their predicted gross domestic product (GDP), a recognised measure of economic health.

In this period of immense geopolitical uncertainty, read on to discover the 21 nations Cebr predicts will reign supreme in 2040.

All dollar amounts in US dollars.

Poland continues to be one of Europe's fastest-growing economies, driven by strong domestic demand and investment. EU funding and strong productivity growth are supporting this expansion, although the country's GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 2.8% annually for the rest of this decade and 2.5% in the 2030s.

One issue is persistently high government deficits, with the nation's record-high defence spending, driven by its proximity to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, adding to its debt-to-GDP burden. As a result, Poland is forecast to drop one spot in the league table by 2040.

While inflation in Argentina remains high by international standards, it's well under the staggering 292% recorded in April 2024. President Javier Milei's drastic reforms have begun to bear fruit, and the economy is recovering, although unemployment remains stubbornly high.

Growth is forecast to average 3.8% annually for the rest of this decade, but the typical yearly figure will slow to 3.2% from 2031 to 2040. In terms of its global ranking, Argentina is set to enjoy a modest improvement, rising to 20th place in 2040.

Türkiye is another country grappling with persistently high inflation and elevated levels of unemployment. However, domestic demand is resilient, and growth has returned to the nation's economy. That growth is expected to accelerate to an annual average of 3.7%, slowing to 3.6% in the years after 2030.

In terms of its ranking, the nation was placed 16th in 2025 and is forecast to gradually drop to 19th place on the World Economic League Table by 2040.

The Netherlands saw modest economic growth in 2025 with low inflation and unemployment, but faces ongoing challenges to its competitiveness.

Future growth is projected to be lacklustre, averaging 1.3% per year through to 2030, then slowing to 1.2% annually in the 2030s. That said, the country is expected to maintain its current 18th place until 2040.

Saudi Arabia's economy has rebounded in recent years with moderate growth and low inflation, supported by government spending and energy subsidies. However, the most recent edition of the WELT was published before the Iran-US conflict unsettled the region, and it remains to be seen how its proximity to the war will impact its future prospects.

Growth was set to average 3.4% per year through to 2030 and 3.3% annually in the 2030s, with the country expected to rise two spots in the league table.

Russia’s growth in recent years has been driven by state spending on the costly war in Ukraine. As this military-driven growth wavers, weakness in the private and consumer sectors is also dragging on the economy. The government’s ability to plug this hole is waning as sanctions keep oil and gas revenues suppressed.

Growth is forecast to average just 1.2% per year for the rest of this decade, but beyond that the outlook is uncertain. Consequently, Russia is forecast to slip from eighth spot in the league table to 16th by 2040.

Mexico is heavily dependent on the US, and the prospect of hefty tariffs on its exports – a threat the Trump administration frequently wields – was predicted to hinder its economic progress. However, the country appears to have weathered the storm for now, though trade uncertainty remains a significant risk.

With this in mind, annual growth is expected to average 2% through to 2040, and Mexico is expected to fall back to 15th place by the end of the 2030s.

Australia remains a high-income economy with solid foundations, although growth is still below its pre-pandemic pace. Its labour market is relatively strong, although unemployment has edged up, and inflation is still running above the central bank's target range.

Looking ahead, Australia’s prospects remain broadly positive, with GDP growth expected to average around 2.2% per year for the rest of the decade, softening to 2% in the 20230s.

South Korea's recent political instability caused a short-term shock to its economy, with the failed imposition of martial law ultimately contributing to a fall in GDP. Growth has since returned, albeit at a slower pace, and the country is forecast to see an average annual rate of 2% through the end of the decade.

One significant risk to South Korea's economic outlook is demographics – the country has the lowest fertility rate in the world, and this could increasingly act as a drag on growth.

Despite economic challenges such as high unemployment and political uncertainty, Spain is experiencing moderate growth and continues to outperform its larger Eurozone peers.

Growth is predicted to average 1.7% annually through 2030 and slow to 1.6% from 2031 to 2040, when GDP will pass the $3 trillion (£2.24tn) mark.

Italy's economy faces more headwinds than most, with significant barriers to future growth, including excessive public debt, a rapidly ageing population and the challenge of meeting its net-zero objectives.

The nation's GDP is expected to expand by an average of just 0.7% a year for the rest of this decade, and remain at that level during the 2030s. Based on this anaemic growth forecast, Italy is poised to fall from eighth place in the league table, losing its top 10 status, and is expected to end up in the 11th spot by 2040.

Canada's resource-rich economy is standing the nation in good stead for the future. But the country has a number of short and medium-term challenges on its plate, including a weak labour market, an ageing population, and an increasingly adversarial relationship with its biggest trading partner to the south.

Canada is forecast to maintain 10th position in the league table through to 2040.

Brazil's economy is buttressed by its wealth of natural resources, but is being stymied by high government debt and a lack of competitiveness.

Growth is expected to average 2% annually through to 2040. While this may be considered disappointing for an upper-middle-income country, Brazil is expected to climb two positions and reach ninth place by 2040.

The dynamic Indonesian economy is forecast to undergo substantial growth over the next 14 years, with an average annual figure of 5% this decade and 5.1% between 2031 and 2040.

This growth will be bolstered by increased competitiveness, renewable energy initiatives and other positives, but Indonesia has its fair share of hurdles to overcome, including a pressing need to diversify its economy. In any case, the country is expected to climb from 16th to the top 10 by 2040.

While reasonably strong overall, France's economy is currently constrained by high public debt, political instability and other negatives, including a softening labour market.

Cebr warns that the country faces middling growth prospects, but expects it to remain in seventh place throughout the entire forecast period.

Japan’s economy has shown signs of improvement, although growth remains below the pace seen before the pandemic. The country's biggest long-term challenge remains its ageing population and shrinking workforce, with the government using measures to encourage births and increase immigration.

Despite these challenges, Japan continues to have a highly developed economy, although its very high public debt remains a major concern. Growth is expected to slow over the coming decades, averaging around 0.7% a year until 2030 and 0.6% thereafter. As a result, Japan is forecast to fall from fourth to sixth place in the global economic rankings by 2040.

The UK economy has been showing signs of life, although growth remains modest by historical standards. Inflation has remained relatively high, putting pressure on household spending, while the labour market has weakened.

Looking ahead, the UK is expected to grow by around 1.5% a year until the end of the decade, suggesting a period of relatively slow expansion. However, weaker growth elsewhere means the UK is forecast to improve its position in the global economic rankings, overtaking Japan to become the world's fifth-largest economy.

Europe's manufacturing juggernaut has been plagued by economic difficulties since the energy price shock caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The resulting high energy costs and weak demand have hampered economic performance.

Looking ahead, Germany is poised for a modest rebound, but annual growth is predicted to average 1.1% through to 2030 and just 0.7% from 2031 to 2040. As a result, Germany is expected to fall one place in the World Economic League Table.

India’s long-term economic prospects remain strong, with the country expected to continue climbing the global economic rankings. It is projected to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2026 and Germany by 2029, becoming the third-largest. 

Growth in manufacturing, investment and domestic consumption will be important to sustaining this expansion, with forecasts suggesting India could reach a $10 trillion (£7.5tn) economy by 2036.

Back in 2020, Cebr predicted China would overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2028. However, its economic health has been hit by myriad issues, including a property market slump, high youth unemployment, low consumer confidence and increasing public debt. Tensions over trade with the US also remain a source of uncertainty.

China is expected to remain the world’s second-largest economy, although growth is forecast to slow to an average of 4.1% through to 2030, and 3.8% thereafter. China is still projected to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2045, with the forecast change driven largely by a weaker long-term outlook for the US rather than a major improvement in China’s underlying growth prospects.

As China struggles, the mighty US economy is now set to reign supreme as the global leader through 2040. Strong consumer spending and heavy investment in artificial intelligence have supported growth, although higher tariffs, weaker confidence and rising borrowing costs have created pressures. Government debt also remains a major concern.

While the US is expected to retain its lofty position, its longer-term growth prospects have been revised down. It remains to be seen how significantly the nation's ongoing war with Iran will contribute to its standing in the years to come.

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