It’s a great day for oil investors so far on reports that the OPEC+ cartel is considering a production cut of 1 million barrels a day at its meeting on Wednesday. The West Texas oil price is up almost 4% at $82.41 and shares in oil companies are up too.
The biggest riser is Marathon Oil (MRO), up 9% at $24.65. Marathon is benefitting from a gamble it made when it decided to limit its ‘hedging.’ In other words, if the oil price falls, Marathon doesn’t have much insurance against those lower prices, and the company would take a bit hit. But when the oil price rises, Marathon gets the full benefit. As a result, it should deliver bigger profit gains than many of its rivals which have hedged.
That said, we’re seeing significant share price rises for several other oil companies, including APA (APA), up 8% at $36.92, Devon Energy (DVN), up 7.8% at $64.82, and Diamondback Energy (FANG), up 6.8% at $128.68.
CF Industries (CF) is a $19 billion company that manufactures nitrogen and hydrogen products for the clean energy industry and fertilizers.
RBC Capital Markets has increased its rating on the stock today from ‘Sector Perform’ to ‘Outperform,’ according to Reuters. The broker cited the ‘favorable US nitrogen market outlook’ and strong cash flow as reasons for the upgrade.
CF Industries has had a strong 2022 because it’s benefitted from relatively low natural gas prices in the US. (CF uses natural gas to manufacture ammonia for farmers.) As food prices have risen, ammonia prices have risen, and CF’s costs haven’t risen by as much. The shares are up 2.6% to $99.85 today.
Lam Research (LRCX) makes equipment that is used by semiconductor manufacturers.
The company has been hit by commodity shortages this year but the long-term story looks attractive. Demand for semiconductors will inevitably rise in the long-term and Lam Research looks well set to benefit. There’s no news to explain today’s 5% rise in the share price to $19.24, so we can only assume investors are catching on to that long-term potential.
Today’s biggest faller is Tesla (TSLA), falling 7% to $246 on disappointing third-quarter numbers. Wall Street analysts were expecting the electric vehicle pioneer to deliver 359,000 vehicles in the last quarter, but the company only managed to sell 344,000. The shortfall was due to logistical problems at Tesla’s new factories in Germany and Texas. One big take from the Tesla company story is that auto logistics are challenging!
Tesla also now faces stronger competition as traditional auto manufacturers launch more and more attractive electric vehicles. And, of course, its stock price isn’t exactly cheap. Even after today’s fall, Tesla stock still trades on a multiple of 58 times earnings for this year. That kind of multiple can only be justified by lots of future growth to come. Investors will be hoping that Tesla’s new humanoid robot Optimus can generate plenty of cash in the long term.
Shares in another electric car company Lucid (LCIC) have also fallen today. No doubt, the fall has been triggered by the bad news at Tesla. Lucid isn’t as far as advanced as Tesla and hasn’t made a profit as yet.
Docusign (DOCU) is an e-signature provider that did fantastically well in 2021, but growth has slowed down dramatically this year. Then the departure of the CEO and CFO from the company in June seriously damaged sentiment around the stock. The shares were already down 65% this year, and they’ve fallen a further 5% today to $52.80.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have cut their rating on the stock today from ‘equal weight’ to ‘under weight’ according to TheFly.com, and their price target from $73 to $47.
The departure of the founder CEO in the summer placed a big question mark over this stock and it’s too early to say that new management have put the company on the right track.
Illumina (ILMN) makes DNA sequencers that speed drug development. Last week in unveiled new technology that is designed to reduce the cost of sequencing a genome to just $200.
But the market isn’t that impressed and the shares are down almost 5% today at $181.99. Trouble is, the company faces increased competition. Illumina wanted to head off that competition by buying a rival called Pacific Biosciences but that deal was nixed by the regulator. So Illumina now has to rely on its own R&D to defeat its rivals.
Illumina trades on a price/earnings ratio of 52 which, at first glance, looks a little high given the competitive threat.
Shares in Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) have jumped 5% today to $726.53. The company is an $80 billion biotech firm which, unlike many of its peers, generates a profit. Recent excitement around the stock has been driven by positive clinical trial results for an eye treatment called Eylea.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have joined the party today by raising their price target from $796 to $970, according to Stock Target Advisor. Goldman also has a ‘buy’ rating on the stock.
Looking further afield and it’s been a tough year for Chinese stocks. The Chinese government has increased control over its largest technology companies, and COVID lockdowns have continued for far longer in China than the US. Shares have fallen across the board and JD.com, China’s biggest direct online retailer, hasn’t escaped the carnage. Before today its stock price was down a quarter this year and it's fallen a further 2% today.
There’s only one piece of company news today. JD’s founder Richard Liu has settled a lawsuit filed against him by a student who accused him of rape. That news probably hasn’t affected the stock price, so we can only assume that investors are continuing to worry about investing in China. Those worries are understandable – there are no signs that the Chinese government is about to lighten up on regulation.
That said, there is a positive case for JD. The company is profitable and its ‘active customers’ number has risen by 9% over the last year. Profit margins are increasing too. Buying stock is a bet on how tough Chinese regulation will be over the next five years.