As well as unleashing human suffering and destruction, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is ravaging the nation's economy, which is expected to shrink by over 45% this year. The so-called 'breadbasket of the world', Ukraine is a leading exporter of agricultural products, not to mention a major supplier of hard commodities and services crucial to the global economy.
As the country restores old ports in a bid to ship emergency supplies of grain – amid news that 22% of its farmland is now occupied by Russian troops – read on as we reveal what the country supplies to the rest of the world and how the war is leading to dire consequences on an international scale.
Ukraine is renowned for its black "chernozem" soil. Because it contains high levels of the organic component humus, Ukrainian soil is among the most fertile on the planet, which is why agriculture is so valuable to the nation's economy. In fact, Ukraine's agricultural exports totalled a whopping $27 billion (£20.7bn) in 2021, more than any other economic sector.
With the country now struggling to plant crops, however, its grain exports have plummeted. In April Ukraine exported just over one million tonnes of grain, as Russian troops block major ports and force officials to transport goods by train from the western border. This figure is considerably under target; back in January, Ukraine's agriculture ministry predicted that the nation would export 30.9 million tonnes of corn alone in 2021-22. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau has pledged to help Ukraine export its stores of grain, saying: "We know people around the world are going to be starving because of the actions of Russia."
Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest exporter of corn, accounting for $5.8 billion (£4.5bn) of the commodity in 2021 alone, or 13% of global exports. Disruption caused by the Russian invasion has led to soaring prices and, because maize is mainly used for animal feed, the cost of meat has increased as a result.
In fact, grains such as corn and maize are such important commodities for the country that Russia is actively trying to sabotage its supply. Earlier this month, Ukraine officials accused Russia of stealing 400,000 tonnes of grain from four occupied regions, as well as attacking agricultural infrastructure such as silos, storage containers, and farm vehicles.
Widely cultivated in the east of the country, Ukraine's national flower has become a potent symbol of resistance against the Russian invasion. The humble sunflower also has powerful economic implications. Ukraine is the global number one producer of sunflower oil and usually exports 47% of the world's supply, which was worth $5.7 billion (£4.4bn) in 2021. According to the latest figures, the country exported 260,000 tonnes of the oil between 27 February and 1 May this year. That's considerably below its typical exports of 200,000 tonnes a month. Reports say supplies are stuck in the Ukrainian port city of Kherson, where residents are now being urged to evacuate amid threats of "a huge battle."
Ukraine's sunflower industry has been crippled by the conflict and the world now faces a shortage of sunflower oil, which is used in products from mayonnaise and margarine to crisps/potato chips. As a result, prices are skyrocketing. This has had a knock-on effect on the prices of other oils such as palm and olive as manufacturers turn to alternatives.
Ukraine is also a key exporter of sunflower seeds, ranking 11th globally. As well as being imported for use in edible oil production, these seeds are also used to feed livestock in the form of animal meal and birdseed.
Another issue impacting the worldwide supply, and therefore prices, of sunflower products is the fact that Russia is also a key exporter. The country is actually the second-largest exporter of sunflower oil and the third-largest exporter of seeds. To reduce the global supply further, the Russian government has banned the export of seeds and imposed strict quotas on the export of oil. Like corn, rising sunflower seed prices have caused the cost of animal feed, and therefore meat, to climb.
Ukraine is the world's eighth-largest producer and sixth-largest exporter of wheat, representing 8.5% of total global exports. The nation's exports of the vital grain were worth almost $5.1 billion (£3.9bn) in 2021. With exports severely disrupted, prices for the staple surged by a painful 19.7% in March this year. Although Russia has claimed it's ready to negotiate with Ukraine and Turkey, around 27 million tonnes of grain has been stuck in Ukrainian ports for months.
These higher costs are being felt all over the world. Shoppers in wealthier nations have been hit with higher bread prices, worsening food inequality at a time when inflation is already hitting household budgets. Meanwhile, in poorer countries such as Yemen, Sudan, Syria, and Bangladesh, the UN's Food and Agricultural Organisation has warned that millions of people are now at risk of malnutrition.
The export of grain is crucial to both Ukraine's economy and world nutrition. To get around Russian blockades, Ukraine has recently started restoring decommissioned ports on the River Danube, most of which date from the Soviet era and have fallen into disrepair. One port, the Reni River port, currently has a capacity of five or six ships a day – but current backlogs mean that 160 ships are waiting to pass through.
Staying with staple grains, rapeseed – which is used to produce animal feed, edible oil such as canola oil, biofuel, and lubricants – is another key agricultural export commodity for Ukraine. Last year, the country exported $1.7 billion (£1.3bn) of the grain.
Again, the Russian war has upended exports of the commodity, putting intense pressure on global prices. These are being impacted further by the shortage of sunflower oil as manufacturers seek out alternatives, with rapeseed oil among the top picks. Because the seed is also used in animal feed, these higher prices are affecting global meat costs, and recent reports have even suggested that a third of British fish and chip shops could be forced to close their doors due to skyrocketing oil costs.
Barley is another major agricultural export for Ukraine, bringing in $1.3 billion (£1bn) in 2021. Like other grains, it benefits from the country's exceptionally fertile soil and climate, which is highly conducive to its growth. Altogether, corn, sunflower products, wheat, rapeseed, and barley comprise 77% of Ukraine's agricultural exports. The country also produces other grains including rye, millet, and rice, but these aren't exported in such huge quantities.
Unsurprisingly, global barley prices have also hit record highs. Compounding the worldwide supply issues caused directly by Russia's invasion, the Ukrainian government has imposed export bans on essential foodstuffs to prevent shortages in the country. Like sunflower oil, some barley that is ready for export is also stuck in the port city of Kherson.
In addition to taking a hit from surging animal feed and energy costs, meat prices around the world are being impacted by the war as both Ukraine and Russia are leading meat exporters. Both nations export large amounts of poultry, pork and beef, and the sudden shortages are pushing up prices.
Ukrainian meat and offal exports beat records in 2021, with the nation exporting $827.8 million (£635.9m) of the commodities. Russian exports, on the other hand, amounted to just over a billion dollars. Although other counties such as Brazil are stepping in to cover the shortfall caused by the invasion, prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future.
Ukraine is home to Europe's leading chicken egg producer Avangardco, and the country as a whole produced a staggering three billion eggs in 2021. The UAE accounts for 40% of its exports. While Brazil is looking to mitigate the global meat shortfall, India is hoping to take Ukraine's place when it comes to egg exports. However, this won't happen overnight.
The war-induced rising costs of grain, which is used to feed chickens, and the surging costs of oil and natural gas, which are used to heat chicken coops, are having an even greater impact on global egg prices. The problem has been compounded by ongoing supply chain issues triggered by COVID-19 and the worst bird flu outbreak in years. In the US, this has caused the price of some eggs to rocket by 73% since last year, according to CBS News.
Ukraine is the world's 14th-largest sugar producer, and the country was expected to produce 2.2 million tonnes of the commodity in 2022. This figure is likely to be enormously reduced due to the war, as farmers struggle to grow sugar beets and manufacturers run into problems with processing and exporting the end product.
According to the UN Food Prices Index, global sugar prices rose by 7% during March. Data from Macrotrends shows prices are currently trending at around $0.20 (£0.17) per pound, the highest they've been since 2016. In fact, the UN has predicted that food prices around the globe could rise by as much as 20% this year as a direct result of the conflict, hugely increasing food insecurity for the world's poorest people.
Looking at hard commodities, Ukraine boasts the fifth-largest crude iron ore reserves in the world and is the fifth-biggest exporter of the commodity. Last year, these exports were worth $6.9 billion (£5.3bn). Global iron ore prices jumped by 16% between 24 February, the day Russia invaded, and 7 March. However, they have now dropped down to pre-invasion levels.
Although iron prices have stabilised for now, the market remains precarious. Ports in the country are still off limits, but the leading Ukrainian miner Ferrexpo has managed to continue exports, albeit in lower volumes, by using rail and river networks instead. The domino effect of the disruption is that steel prices are also rising, as iron ore is a major component of the widely used alloy.
Ukraine is the world's 14th-largest producer of steel, which represented 18% of the country's total exports in 2018. The price of the alloy has followed an almost identical trajectory to the price of iron ore, spiking following the invasion in late February before falling back again.
In May the price of steel was around 10% higher than it was on 24 February. Russia exports even more steel than Ukraine and together the two countries export 43 million tonnes a year. Only China exports more of the metal, leaving global supplies decimated as a result of the war – especially as many Chinese exports have suffered due to ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks in the country.
To help bolster Ukraine's struggling economy, the US has overturned the 25% tariffs that then-president Donald Trump imposed on Ukrainian steel imports in 2018. But with Russian troops storming a major steel plant in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the future of the industry remains precarious, despite US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's attempts to "support one of the most important industries to Ukraine's economic wellbeing."
Ukraine supplies around half of the world's neon, a by-product of the nation's steelmaking industry. According to Reuters, the war has led to a halt in production of the noble gas, with Ukraine's two leading producers, Ingas and Cryoin, ceasing supply. Ingas is based in war-ravaged Mariupol, while Cryoin operates out of Odesa.
This has worrying implications for the global semiconductor industry, as neon is essential for the making of silicon semiconductors. The decrease in production is likely to prolong the ongoing chip shortage, leading to higher prices and delivery delays for a plethora of hi-tech products from smartphones to electric cars.
Ukraine possesses the world's sixth-largest reserves of uranium, which is used to generate nuclear power, and is the ninth-largest producer globally. Prices for the radioactive substance have spiked since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with uranium futures at their highest price since the Fukushima disaster in 2011.
On top of supply concerns due to the lack of uranium being exported from Ukraine, prices are soaring because many Western countries have banned imports of nuclear fuel from Russia. A growing number of countries are turning to nuclear power to wean themselves off Russian oil and gas while accelerating their efforts to go carbon neutral. This means that the global demand is increasing while the available supply is decreasing.
Ukraine is the world's fifth-largest producer of titanium, a super-strong yet lightweight metal that's used to make everything from aircraft and cars to ships, prosthetics, sporting goods, and paint. Russia is an even more important manufacturer of the metal. The third-biggest producer on the planet, Russia accounted for 13% of the global supply of titanium sponge, a porous form of titanium commonly used to make alloys, in 2021.
As manufacturing companies look to alternative sources of the metal due to the conflict, titanium prices are expected to surge by as much as 60% within the next couple of years. Fortunately, severe shortages of titanium are unlikely, as countries such as Japan step in to cover the global shortfall. However, the expected inflation will affect the cost of making planes, cars, and other essential products that require titanium.
Ukraine mines and produces a whole host of other important commodities. These range from manganese – the country has the world's second-largest explored reserves of the metal, which is used in steel production – to mercury and clay. Ukraine possesses 30% of the world's reserves of clay and kaolin/china clay and is the third-largest exporter after the US and China.
Although Ukraine also has the third-largest shale gas reserves in Europe, the country isn't a major producer or exporter of natural gas. It is, however, the main transit country for Russian gas that's destined for Europe. The infrastructure has sustained damage, but Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine in high volumes.
Many Western countries rely on Ukraine's tech prowess. In recent years, the country has established itself as a formidable supplier of outsourced IT services, with a substantial number of large businesses in Europe, the US, and beyond now heavily dependent on Ukrainian software developers and other IT professionals.
The Ukrainian IT sector, which employs an estimated 300,000 people, exports services worth billions of dollars and now accounts for 4% of the country's GDP. So far, the industry has fared better than many others, managing to operate at around 80% of pre-war levels. This has partly been possible thanks to Elon Musk's provision of thousands of Starlink satellite internet kits. Still, it's doubtful whether this is sustainable, and outsourcing firm Krusche & Company has warned that severe disruption to Ukraine's IT industry has the potential to digitally cripple the West.
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