I think the housing price fall will slow down starting from now ?
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1GrahamMiller0 postedNot so sure. We have a combine the credit crunch and the fact that people just don't want to move over Christmas.
Also, there are a lot of comments suggesting that house prices aren't falling as quickly as they need to because the owners are in denial about the current value of their house.
However, my guess is that house price falls will slow down after Christmas. People need somewhere to live.
Posted on 22 October 2008 |
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0Fazzersix posted
Maybe I'm wrong but i have a gut feeling its started slowing.
100% people need a roof, renting expensive.
I noticed some properties for sale have been removed from the market because they cant sell, think this is a trent up and down the country.
We have moved a couple of times around christmas, we are getting another valuation soon.
Sell or not will not panic just test the market.
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0complyman posted
Prices are expected to fall at least 35% from their peak a year ago. Some predict as much as 50% but it will depend on local circumstances. Inner city flats for example are the most affected. With a recession ahead it is likely we have not hit the bottom yet. Just getting a mortgage will be difficult for many. You can also expect potential buyers to knock you down if you don't get a realistic valuation.
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
That drop of 50% is unrealistic for a lot of properties, maybe a small minority in certain areas, very very few.
Example i have a fully modernised 3 bed semi all mod cons notts, valuation a year ago 130k reduce that 50% = 65k totally unrealistic dont you think.
I do agree with city centre flats, i worked for a letting agent so saw that first hand.
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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114ThatLindseyGuy posted
Fazzer - I'm not so sure £65k is completely unrealistic; I would say its on the low side but, given the regional economics, not out of this world.
Average gross salary in East Midlands is about £16k. I'll assume avergae household income to be 1.5x average salary at £24k.
The house price/earnings ratio at the last property market low in 1993 was just 2.8.
2.8 x £24k = £67.2k
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
Think the big question is how much does it cost to buy land and build a new 3 bedroom semi, 65k is impossible, so i think that answers that question.
65k would mean no new houses being built any where in the UK.
Plus the rental side has to be taken into account, the cost of renting property is linked to house prices, there is a balance.
Taking the above into account 65k for a fully modernised spacious 3 bed semi is impossible.
If that did happen the UK will go bankrupt.
Good luck if you are a part of it good or bad, its not all bad we all need a roof !
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
I hear most sellers will not sell at unrealistic prices and are taking them off the market, unless their financial situation force them to sell.
We will be try the market and if unsuccesfull remove it and wait, will not give our home away.
Fortunately I'm in a position to do this, feel sorry for those who arn't.
Good luck if your in it, the housing market will come good again and the cash injection should slowly filter through.
Posted on 22 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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159JoeEasedale posted
I think that some of these answers as good as they are in isolation are missing a vital factor.
The argument for a 50% fall off the peak is absolutely well made on the basis of affordability. In the region of 3+1 or 2.5 times joint income is about right.
The counter argument that you can't buy land and build a house for that is also true, but that does not mean that house prices must rise but that land, labour and bricks must fall. That looks like deflation and maybe depression and that may well be where we are going imho.
Posted on 23 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
I still think 50% is impossible, built into that is the cost of renting, all builders will go bust under that senario and so will all lenders including related businesses.
People need a roof purchased or rented so this will not happen, I'm 100% sure.
If it did happen the UK will go bankrupt like Zimbabway.
Ive dealt with property for over 30 years i hope i'm right, thanks for your answer.
Good luck if you are part of it.
Posted on 23 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Adelphi1968 posted
Surely at the end of the day if you are moving upmarket you can expect to make a saving on that house if you have to take a drop on your own, if in the same area.
There is one sector though and I think probably these are some of the ones who are taking their properties off the market, that are looking to sell either to retire abroad (as we are) or perhaps to move to another location where perhaps the drop in price is not so big as in their own area. This would mean they need all the money they can get from their own sale which is why they are not ready to keep dropping the price.
In my area (West Midlands) our own town has only seen a 3% drop in house prices in the last 12 months because the properties in this area have always been cheaper than in other parts of the West Midlands, so these 50% drops people are talking about are probably in the South where prices have gone silly and need to come down a lot to make them affordable for people to buy!
Posted on 26 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
Thanks for your reply, I agree 100% this is the problem people seem to generalise and forget the reality regarding different area's.
Everyone seems to be in doom and gloom mode, most buyers are making mortgage repayments and only a very small percentage are not.
I've noticed lots of properties being removed from the market, probably till the storm calms.
We are east midlands area, having a second valuation tomorrow, not in a hurry to sell and expecting a further rate cut.
Good luck.
Posted on 26 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
I agree but hope the price drop is slowing now.
The big problem right now is everyone so negative, property will win again seen it before.
Spoke to an estate agent yesterday, house for sale are receiving offers 10/15k below the asking price in my area, so if you can knock down your new home price its better all round.
The only people that gain from house price increases are speculators and people trading down for retirement etc.
A steady house price is fine and stops us lending to much, feel sorry for those caught in neg equity.
We go for sale soon be a laugh thanks !
Good luck
Posted on 28 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
Forgot to add property rentals are strongly connect to house sales, so as rents go up people find it cheaper to buy, if they can get a mortgage of course.
As on one of my previous post bank building societies are geared for lending money, unless they lend soon they go bust.
Posted on 28 October 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0jamesey73uk posted
I have a few friends who all put their houses on the market within the last 4 months within Scotland and all have sold within 6 - 8 weeks!
One got the full asking price that he was looking for where as the other was about 2.5% under what they wanted, however; they still made a massive 150% profit!
It is up to the British public to regain confidence in buying - stop listening to the news it is all doom and gloom - we can make a difference.
Posted on 03 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fool279511416 posted
100% confidence needed, seeing a few sold here in east midlands area.
Posted on 03 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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1Birtles posted
Fazzersix,
You are great for the rest of us. It is people like you who are willing to hold overpriced assets whils they are falling who can bear the brunt for the rest of us. Thank you.
50% falls re very realistic. Who would ahve ever thought that house prices could almost triple in the space of 10 years.
Fazzersix prepare to be shocked...
Posted on 18 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
It makes no difference to me its poor people loosing their jobs homes etc.
There has to be low point if not the uk goes bankrupt, mass colapse of building and associated trades etc its endless.
Even if land prices fall a plot of land cant be purchased and built on at a 50% drop in my Area.
Seen it all before property will win, at the moment people are reducing the asking price and knocking down the seller plus over 40% are removing their homes from sale.
I dont panick but sit tight just like the stock market, he who's waits wins, so sorry for those who cant.
Maybe your area can drop 50% but most cant.
Good luck to you.
Posted on 18 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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1Birtles posted
Fazzersix Check out betfair. The expected fall peak to trough is 50%. ie 50% is not even considered to be an extreme scenario...
If you're that confident you should be betting on there.
You are right there has to be a bottom. I would put a very bad case at about 2.5 times the average household income of £33k... roughly £83k
Your argument over build cost holds no water. Things can and will sell for less than it costs to buy land and build. Thats why builders are in trouble and why only 3 out of 20 survived the last downturn.
Again I must thank you on behalf of your vendor and the rest of the country for holding an asset that is falling in value so the rest of us don't have to.
Posted on 18 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
Your quotes may be correct in some area's but not most, they are statistics which bend.
I oun several properties and negative equity is not a problem and never will be, property will always win, feel sorry for people with high mortgages.
Maybe my equity is going down the river but i will win, seen it all before when interest rates were 15.5% and my overdraft 19.5%.
I put my money where my mouth is and am looking to buy at least one bungalow.
One big problem right now is media panic, most people are still paying there mortgage and only a small percentage not, will increase though.
There's a sanario someone posted, home ouners are flooding the let market with their homes unable to sell, Q if they are renting their homes out - they must be looking to rent another cos they cant buy, so how do we calculate that (statistics again).
Sounds like you rent your home your landlords happy with that and so are you, but its not for me.
Good luck which ever way you do it and there's no need to thank me for holding assets that will increase short to long term, the above is quoted with 30 years experience in property.
Out of breath now lol.
Posted on 18 November 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0churchill123 posted
Cost of renting is actually dropping in London. You won't see a rebound in the property market until the month by month costs of renting are actually significantly higher than a mortgage on a like for like property. This is what happens every time we have a turn-down.
Posted on 13 December 2008 | Love 0 loves
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0Fazzersix posted
Thanks for your feedback, my arguement is everthing has a support level unless everthing else keep radicaly reducing house price must hit a level very soon.
ie fuel council tax etc etc etc cannot be controlled or drastically reduded, these are linked to the average cost of all things in the economy including property (the support level.
So if house prices keep falling everything in the uk will collapse like dominos.
Interest rate early ninties peaked at 16% today 4% is possible, this is another reason for recovery.
However job losses are a problem not sure how that will pan out.
Hope you follow my drift, good luck.
Posted on 13 December 2008 | Love 0 loves
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